Fiberglass Industry Tracking Report

Prices are at the bottom, inventories are falling for the first time, and future demand is expected to pick up

The market price of glass fiber bottomed out, and the price of electronic yarn rebounded. In the alkali-free yarn market, as of November 11, 2022, the average price of 2400tex winding direct yarn was 4,281 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 1.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 31.62%, and a year-to-date price drop of 23.97%; The price was 9375 yuan/ton, up 2.24% month-on-month, down 44.03% year-on-year, and down 4.34% year-to-date. At present, the price of glass fiber is close to a historical low, and the price of electronic yarn has rebounded strongly recently. We judge that the price of domestic glass fiber industry has been in the bottom range. Driven by factors such as infrastructure, "dual carbon" and new energy, the overall price of the industry is expected to be in the future. repair.

Glass fiber inventory is at a historical high, and inventory fell for the first time in October. In terms of inventory, the domestic industry inventory in October was 673,200 tons, which has reached the high point of the previous stage (the previous high point was 649,200 tons), down 3.81% month-on-month and up 270.40% year-on-year. In October, the inventory pressure of glass fiber enterprises eased, which was the first decline in inventory in a year.

The overall national production capacity has remained stable since the third quarter, and is expected to slow down in 2023. In terms of production capacity, the total production capacity of the glass fiber industry in the second quarter was about 7.414 million tons, and about 7.447 million tons in October, an increase of 790,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.88%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.61%; of which the production capacity was 6.610 million tons, A year-on-year increase of 11.13% and a month-on-month increase of 0.92%; cold repair + shutdown + dismantled production capacity was 797,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 59.72% and a month-on-month decrease of 1.85%. The production capacity of alkali-free roving is about 5.908 million tons, an increase of 670,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year, a year-on-year increase of 12.79%, and a month-on-month increase of 1.03%; the electronic yarn production capacity is about 1.114 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 19.27% year-on-year, and a month-on-month decrease. 1.33%.

In 2022, the domestic new production capacity is expected to be about 820,000 tons, the cold repair is about 298,000 tons, and the net increase is about 522,000 tons. As of October 2022, there are 10 new ignition production lines in China this year, including 6 alkali-free roving production lines, corresponding to 500,000 tons of production capacity, namely Xingtai Jinniu Line 1 40,000 tons, Line 4 100,000 tons, Chongqing International F08, The F12 production lines are 120,000 tons each, Sichuan Yuda 30,000 tons and Jiujiang Huayuan 60,000 tons. One electronic yarn production line is 100,000 tons of Jushi Group. There are 5 cold repair production lines, including 3 alkali-free rovings, corresponding to a production capacity of 230,000 tons, which are 120,000 tons for Jushi Group Tongxiang Line 2, 60,000 tons for Taishan Glass Zoucheng Line 4, and 50,000 tons for Chongqing International; Electronic Yarn 2 The corresponding production capacity is 68,000 tons, which is 38,000 tons of Bicheng Glass and 30,000 tons of Boulder Climbing. In 2023, it is estimated that the new production capacity in China will be about 1.06 million tons, the cold repair will be about 819,000 tons, and the net increase will be about 241,000 tons.

Exports: 4 consecutive month-on-month declines, prices rebounded, and overseas demand was sluggish. In terms of exports, the export volume of glass fiber and products in a single month in September was 119,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 19.71% and a month-on-month decrease of 10.64%. A year-on-year increase of 10.40%, a month-on-month decrease of 7.98%; the average monthly export price was 2.03 US dollars/kg, a year-on-year increase of 37.49% and a month-on-month increase of 3.05%.

In terms of products, the export volume of glass fiber roving in September was 41,400 tons, down 36.12% year-on-year and 14.47% month-on-month; the export volume of other glass fibers was 3,400 tons, down 40.84% year-on-year and 27.54% month-on-month; length≤50mm The export volume of chopped glass fiber was 13,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 33.19% and a month-on-month decrease of 20.20%. We believe that the decline in exports is mainly due to weak demand due to geopolitical conflicts in some parts of the world and global economic inflation.

In summary, we believe that:

   1. The price of glass fiber has been at the bottom of history, and the price of electronic yarn has rebounded;

   2. Inventory is at an all-time high, and inventory fell for the first time in October;

   3. Since the third quarter, the overall national production capacity has remained stable, and there is no new ignition plan this year;

   4. The export price has reached a historical high, and overseas demand is under pressure. Pay attention to the changes in export volume;

5. With the recovery of wind power, automobile and other industries, the glass fiber industry as a whole is expected to be repaired in the future.

Key recommendation Haiding Fiberglass:

   1) Wind power yarn: The company has a complete ECR series with priority in performance. It maintains the world's first share in the field of wind power yarn, accounting for about one-third, and is the leader in the industry.

   2) Thermoplastic products: Two specialized short-cut production lines for thermoplastic products have been put into operation one after another, and the company's overall production capacity has been continuously increased, and its market share has increased significantly in both the lightweight of automobiles and the electrical field;

   3) Electronic cloth: The growth rate of electronic cloth is the fastest, and the production capacity ranks first in the world. The company has a production capacity scale of 1 billion meters. In general, as a leader in the segmented field in the future, the company has a broad space for future development.