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Overview of the development of composite materials in the United States in 2022

Views: 2     Author: Site Editor     Publish Time: 2023-03-09      Origin: Site

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Some people believe that the global economic outlook in 2023 will be bleak, which is based on the current overall economic situation. Many economists expect a decline in global gross product to accompany recessions in the U.S. and Europe. The Fed expects to raise interest rates more this year than initially planned. In addition, the war between Russia and Ukraine etc. has brought uncertainty to the market. However, the outlook for the composites industry is not all bleak.

Composites Manufacturing USA magazine invites consultants to share their outlook for composites and end-use products for this year and beyond. Below we will summarize and share the specific content with industry professionals for readers.


Fiberglass Market


Last year the North American composites industry presented two stories. The industry has shown strong growth in early 2022, with demand up 5% year-on-year in January and 10% year-on-year in February. A slight improvement in distribution helped keep the performance high, although fiberglass raw material and finished product shipments remained the biggest challenge in meeting market demand at the start of the year. Marine, construction and infrastructure are all doing well, with no sector performing particularly poorly in early 2022.


However, in the second half of 22, the composites market was down nearly 7% in most months compared to the same period last year due to weakness in recreational vehicles, buses, trucks, housing-related products, marine and other industries. Another factor easing demand in the second half of the year is the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. In order to control inflation, the Fed will raise interest rates four times in 2022. As a result, the remarkable growth in the first half was watered down in the second half.


Overall, the global fiberglass market is expected to grow about 2% in 2022, with demand increasing from 11.8 billion pounds in 2021 to 12 billion pounds. Most major industries, including construction, electrical and electronics, and automotive, recorded growth in 2022.


Global glass fiber production capacity will reach 13 billion pounds in 2022 from 11.6 billion pounds in 2017, and glass fiber demand will increase from 10.6 billion pounds (5,261,671 tons) in 2017 to 12 billion pounds (5,443,108 tons) in 2022. Fiberglass plant capacity utilization increases from 90% in 2021 to about 92% in 2022.


In the future, demand for glass fibers will remain strong with increasing demand from sectors such as wind energy, electrical and electronics, automotive, marine and construction. However, a mild recession is likely in early 2023 as the Fed seeks to keep interest rates high this year to keep inflation in check. The main variables are how long inflation will last and how it will affect investment and consumer behavior.


One of the major challenges plaguing the composites industry over the past two years has been rising raw material prices. A number of factors have contributed to record fiber and resin prices, such as post-pandemic consumer demand, higher fuel prices, ongoing supply chain issues, geopolitical events and the war in Ukraine.


Lucintel's quarterly pricing research shows that prices for most major resins (such as unsaturated polyester resins and epoxy resins) and major fibers (such as glass fibers and carbon fibers) will increase by 20% to 80% in 2021. In terms of competing materials, steel and rebar prices will increase by 30%-35% in 2021, and aluminum prices will increase by 60%. The good news is that in the second half of 2022, due to weak demand, raw material prices will start to stabilize or even soften.


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Carbon fiber market


After two years of slump in 2020 and 2021, the carbon fiber industry rebounded last year. In 2022, the global carbon fiber industry's sales volume will increase by about 9% to 191 million pounds ($3.6 billion). The dollar value of carbon fiber shipments is up about 27% in 2022, and carbon fiber prices are up about 20% in 2022 compared to 2021.


Before the COVID-19 pandemic, carbon fiber prices were on a downward trend, but this trend was disrupted by geopolitical issues and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which led to an increase in the price of natural oil and gas, as well as various raw materials.


Lucintel predicts that from 2023 to 2028, the demand of the global carbon fiber industry will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7%, due to several reasons, including the growth of the application of carbon fiber in wind turbine blades, the increase in aircraft deliveries recovery, light vehicle production and demand for sporting goods, recreational vehicles and electrical and electronic products.


Of note is China, which is investing heavily in the carbon fiber market. For example, Sinopec launched China's first large-bundle carbon fiber production line with a production capacity of 10,000 tons. During several visits to China, I found that some companies are innovating and disrupting various end industries through the use of carbon fiber. There are hundreds of CFRP component manufacturing companies in China. In addition, China strives to lead the robot and drone market, and carbon fiber will have great potential in the future.


Another trend that will impact the carbon fiber market is the growing interest in the hydrogen economy, with its vision of using hydrogen as a low-carbon energy source. Both hydrogen and electric vehicles are paving the way for cleaner, greener road environments. But unlike electric vehicles, which take a considerable amount of time to recharge, hydrogen-fueled vehicles can be recharged as quickly from gas stations as gasoline or diesel vehicles. Fuel cells can be used to power passenger cars, heavy trucks, buses, forklifts, airplanes and other means of transportation.


In 2022, due to the lack of a strong hydrogen infrastructure, global demand for fuel cell vehicles will only account for 0.03% of total vehicle sales. In addition, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are not many options available to consumers around the world. The good news is that demand for fuel cell vehicles has grown rapidly in recent years. If this trend continues, demand for carbon fiber will grow rapidly as it is used in fuel cells, electrolyzers and hydrogen tanks.


Circular economy trends, focusing on the reuse and regeneration of materials and products, will also influence the future growth of carbon fiber. In terms of sustainability, carbon fiber components allow for significant weight savings, reducing fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. But recycling carbon fiber components at the end of their useful life is a challenge. Lucintel's research points to many examples of recycling carbon fiber from processing waste, but currently none at end-of-life.


Material suppliers and component manufacturers are under increasing pressure to adopt sustainable measures that support the circular economy. Whether it's automotive, wind energy or aerospace, OEMs want to hear good circular economy stories about carbon fiber and carbon fiber components. Most OEMs have a 2030 to 2050 carbon neutrality target, and they are already considering recycling as part of their design criteria for next-generation component manufacturing. By utilizing innovative technologies and materials, material and component suppliers that enable OEMs to achieve circular economy goals will gain market share in the future.


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