In 2023, the glass fiber industry will usher in a big explosion

Fiberglass is an extremely fine fiber material made by drawing or centrifugally spinning molten glass. The upstream of the glass fiber industry involves mining (non-metallic minerals such as pyrophyllite and limestone), chemicals (soda ash, etc.) and energy (natural gas, electricity, etc.), and the downstream involves building materials, electronic appliances, rail transit, petrochemicals, automobile manufacturing, and wind power generation. and many other fields.

Glass fiber has excellent properties such as light weight, high strength, high and low temperature resistance, corrosion resistance, heat insulation, flame retardant, sound absorption, and electrical insulation. With the rapid development of emerging industries in the past two years, the demand for glass fiber has been gradually opened up, and the room for industrial growth has also been further expanded.

China is a major producer of glass fiber and has a leading position in the global market.

In 2021, the total domestic output of glass fiber roving will reach 6.24 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.34%. In 2020, the growth rate affected by the epidemic will only be 2.66%, and the two-year average growth rate will be about 9%. In 2022, the output will exceed 7.07 million tons, a growth rate increased to 13.3%.

The structure of glass fiber production capacity is advanced, with pool kiln yarn as the mainstay.

The glass fiber production process is mainly based on "crucible method" and "pool kiln method". The crucible method is a traditional process, commonly known as the "two-step method". It is divided into two steps: ball making and wire drawing. Waste cullet is used to melt glass balls, and then the wire is melted and drawn by electric heating. The energy consumption is high and the product quality is poor. At present, the crucible method accounts for than very small. The pool kiln method is to grind pyrophyllite, limestone and other raw materials into the kiln, heat and melt the materials and then draw them directly. It has high efficiency, large output, stable quality and low energy consumption. It is the most advanced process method at present. In terms of pool kiln yarn, as of the end of 2021, the total output of pool kiln yarn in my country will be 5.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.54%. In 2021, the output of pool kiln yarn in my country will account for 92.96%, and the output of crucible yarn will account for 7.04%. Currently, the pool kiln method is the mainstream process.

The glass fiber faucet realizes efficient and intelligent manufacturing, and takes a key step towards industrialization 4.0.

Although glass fiber is a new material, its production mode is relatively traditional. "Heavy assets + labor-intensive" has always been the label of this industry. In recent years, the global glass fiber leader China Jushi Intelligent Manufacturing Project has combined the glass fiber intelligent manufacturing system architecture to carry out 3D simulation modeling of core production equipment such as kilns, wire drawing machines, and winders, and reproduce the entire process of the manufacturing process in a virtual environment. The whole life cycle of products has realized the digitization and intelligence of production and operation.

The willingness to expand glass fiber production capacity in the future is still strong.

According to data from the China Fiberglass Industry Association, in 2021, the industry's new tank kiln production capacity will once again exceed 900,000 tons, which is basically the same as in 2018. Judging from the current production lines under construction at home and abroad (without statistical progress and no plans to start construction), the net increase in production capacity in 2022 will reach 1.84 million tons.

According to relevant data, as of February 6, 2023, several domestic leading enterprises in the glass fiber industry have planned to expand their production capacity by more than 1 million tons. At present, economic recovery is expected to be strong, and demand growth in wind power and infrastructure industries can be expected. Fiberglass companies are actively expanding production, not only to prepare for production capacity, but also to catch up with development trends such as technological upgrading and intelligent manufacturing.

The glass fiber industry is highly concentrated and has a relatively obvious oligopolistic competition pattern.

In 2020, the production capacity of global glass fiber enterprises will reach 47% in CR3 and 64% in CR5. Among the top 5 glass fiber companies, Chinese companies account for 3. China Jushi tops the list with a production capacity of 2 million tons per year, accounting for 23% of the global production capacity. It is a well-deserved industry leader; Taishan's glass fiber production capacity is 960,000 tons / year, accounting for 11%; Chongqing International production capacity is 870,000 tons / year, accounting for 10%. Domestic production capacity is mainly taken over by China Jushi, Taishan Fiberglass, and Chongqing International.

The downstream demand dimension of glass fiber has been upgraded, and it is still a sunrise industry on a global scale.

Owens Corning has calculated that the growth rate of demand in the glass fiber industry is about 1.6 times the growth rate of industrial output value. The World Trade Organization predicts that the global economic growth rate will be about 2.8% in 2022; The global demand growth rate of the fiber industry is about 4.5%. In other words, my country's glass fiber is still in the stage of consumption growth.

In 2022, the domestic glass fiber market will go up and down, the price of alkali-free glass fiber roving will drop sharply, and the price of electronic yarn will fluctuate at a low level. However, industry insiders believe that: Considering that the current spot price has bottomed out + demand for wind power/thermoplastic/electronic yarn has picked up, the growth rate of demand in new downstream fields in the medium and long term is considerable. Fiber prices will have sufficient flexibility.

Among the downstream demand for glass fiber, the demand for glass fiber in the field of building materials is the largest. With the introduction of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutral" policies, green building has become an important development direction of the construction industry. Glass fiber will benefit from the opportunities of green building promotion, improve the performance of green buildings and reduce building energy consumption based on good performance in thermal insulation, heat insulation, compression resistance and sound insulation. Some industry organizations predict that the output value growth rate of the construction industry will be around 5% from 2022 to 2023. Under the neutral assumption, the demand for fiberglass construction materials will be 1.815 million tons and 1.908 million tons respectively, and the demand growth rate will be 6.8% and 5.1% respectively, maintaining a steady growth . In addition, according to industry estimates, the installed capacity of wind power in 2022 and 2023 will be 55GW and 65GW, corresponding to approximately 550,000 and 650,000 tons of glass fiber demand in 2022-2023, with growth rates of 19.0% and 18.2% respectively.

Generally speaking, the domestic glass fiber industry has already possessed the basic elements for rapid development since 2020. Chinese economy stabilized at the end of 2022 and picked up at the beginning of this year. The market economy is gradually recovering, and various industries are waiting to be revived.